Background

• Sodexo is a food services and facilities management company headquartered in Europe with a global presence

• Offer services in four domains

  • Food
  • Hard FM
  • Soft FM
  • Integrated Services

• Two main competitors

  • Aramark
  • Compasss
  • Local players specific to the project location

Data

• Data available on all bids Sodexo quoted since 2010

• Number of bids

## [1] 3746

• Distribution of opportunities over Fiscal Years

• Distribution of Opportunities by Service Type

Old Provider vs New Provider

• Number of Opportunities

Old Provider vs New Provider

• Revenue - Millions of Euros

Old Provider vs New Provider

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Opportunity Global Region

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Service Level 1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Strategic Segment L1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Regional Strategic Account

Regression Analysis - Logistic Regression

• Model Accuracy

• Regression Results

Regression Analysis - Multinomial Logistic Regression

• Model Accuracy

• Regression Results

Using Machine Learning to Improve Predictive Accuracy

• Supervised Machine Learning Approach Called Random Forests

• To avoid over-fitting, we split the data into Train and Test samples
  • 80% Train data and 20% Test data

Random Forest

• Parameter Tuning

rf_grid <- expand.grid(mtry = seq(2, 8, by = 1),
                      splitrule = c("gini", "extratrees"),
                      n_trees    = c(150,175,200,225,250,275,300,350,
                                     400,450,500,550,600,650,700,750,800,
                                     850,900,950,1000),
                      min.node.size = c(1, 3, 5,10),
                      sampe_size = c(0.5,0.6,0.8))

Random Forest

• Model Accuracy

Application